“By The Numbers”
It’s a “short week” as we travel to Oregon State on Thursday, so it will be a short newsletter for this week as well. (I know…you’re disappointed)
The ASU win was an exciting one, maybe a little more exciting than we needed it to be. I asked the team if they thought the performance was indicative of how good we really are (a loaded question) and they agreed that we are better than that. So, for UVA I challenged them to perform to the level we are capable of, and they responded well.
I was talking with Luke Duthie (184 lb sophomore) the other day about his future plans and he mentioned he would possibly like to get a PhD in statistics. I wondered how many DI wrestlers had a similar goal…probably not too many.
I also wondered why we don’t use statistics more in wrestling. Other sports use statistics to create interest and excitement around sports like baseball and football, and wrestling should follow suit. My favorite wrestling article written each year is by Flowrestling’s Andrew Spey called, “By the Numbers,” where he breaks down the statistics from the DI Wrestling Championships. (If you haven’t read it here is a sample from last year: By The Numbers 2024.)
For this newsletter I figured I would do a little, “by the numbers,” for the UVA dual.
8-1- That is contested matches won vs matches lost. Easily the greatest statistic when looking at a dual meet. We can feel great about that number.
15-1-That was the takedowns for Stanford opposed to UVA.
A great ratio, but I would like to see the number of takedowns for us go up a bit. Maybe if we wrestled a little more open we would have given up a few more, but also scored more as a result of creating more action.
Lorenzo Norman had 6 of the 15 takedowns…so perhaps the data around takedowns is skewed? Tyler Knox had 0 takedowns, but secured a pin. Maybe he would have also scored 6 takedowns if he wrestled the whole match. Who knows? Maybe it’s just a bit tougher to look at the team’s statistics in the sport of wrestling, but 15 takedowns to 1 is a pretty dominant performance.
On a statistical note of national significance, the NCAA has been releasing the leaders in the NCAA of wrestlers who are scoring bonus points. Unfortunately, we don’t have anyone on the list…yet.
Although, if there was a statistical leader in 1-count nearfalls, Hunter Garvin would win it by a long shot. He had multiple 1-counts in this match, and has had it happen a bunch of times in other matches. Once we get him to hold his opponent for one more count than he is getting right now, he will be blowing open matches…we are working on it. (credit: Coach Hidlay came up with the idea that Hunter would be the statistical leader in this area…if it existed.)
Other than the 1-count nearfalls, I really enjoyed Hunter’s match vs NCAA qualifier Nick Hamilton. Both were coming off injury, so things were relatively even coming into the match. It was a low scoring match, but Hunter had great energy and was the aggressor from start to finish. There was some great action and Hunter is coming into form as we enter the “home stretch” of the season.
In near-fall criteria with more than 1 count, Stanford had 2 sets, while UVA had none. Our fearless seniors Pete Ming and Jaden Abas got those. Not to bring up Tyler Knox again, but I’m curious if a wrestler pins their opponent, why are they not awarded the back points after the fact? They earned the points and should get them. More statistical problems with wrestling.
If we had a statistical system that could track “almost takedowns,” Grigor Cholaykyan would have won this for the UVA dual. After just falling short of scoring three takedowns in the first period, he was able to make one count in the third, winning 4-1.
Nick Stemmet had a dangerous opponent and wrestled a very smart match to earn a 8-1 decision (AKA an almost major).
Tye Monterio was wrestling great until his opponent was forced to injury default.
Nothing pains me more than to see a wrestler injury default, even if it is someone on the opposing team. These young men work so hard and put so much into this sport, that it is just heartbreaking to see them get hurt. Hopefully, the UVA wrestler has a speedy recovery.
Next up…The Beavers of Oregon State.
Friday, January 6, 7:00pm PT 10:00 ET
Watch it on Flowrestling: https://www.flowrestling.org/live/144514
No. 16 Stanford 34, Virginia 9
arms125: #31 Keyveon Roller (UVA) won by forfeit
133: #6 Tyler Knox (STAN) fall Kyle Montaperto (UVA), F4:40
141: #20 Dylan Cadeno (UVA) dec. #21 Jason Miranda (STAN), 3-2
149: #7 Jaden Abas (STAN) maj. dec. #30 Jake Gioffre (UVA), 14-2
157: #29 Grigor Cholakyan (STAN) dec. Nick Sanko (UVA), 4-1
165: #16 Hunter Garvin (STAN) dec. #19 Nick Hamilton (UVA), 4-1
174: #4 Lorenzo Norman (STAN) tech. fall Michael Murphy (UVA), 20-5 (7:00)
184: Tye Monteiro (STAN) won by injury default over Justin Phillips (UVA), 5:45
197: #24 Nick Stemmet (STAN) dec. Steven Burrell Jr. (UVA), 8-1285: Peter Ming (STAN) maj. dec. Gabe Christenson (UVA), 9-0
